Can mankind survive?
The 'Great Filter' in front of us - how do we get through it?
Is Earth the only planet on which life exists? In our solar system, it most probably is. According to the latest estimates, there are 100 to 400 billion suns orbited by planets in our galaxy, the Milky Way, alone. Even if only 1 per cent of the solar systems have a planet with conditions conducive to life, that is 1 to 4 billion that could be similar to Earth. For comparison: 1 billion is 1000 million. Even if life could only develop on 1 per cent of these earth-like planets, that is still 10 to 40 million. And if only 1 per cent of these planets were able to develop living beings comparable to us humans, that would still be 100,000 to 400,000 possibilities. But that only applies to our Milky Way. With current technology, more than 50 billion galaxies can be observed. It is estimated that there are 1 trillion (1000 billion) galaxies in the observable universe. If we add to this the possible planets with intelligent life forms, we arrive at numbers that are inconceivable for a normal person. I'll eat a broom if there isn't an Adam and Eve couple running around somewhere eating apples.
But how can it be that we on Earth have not yet realised that there are so many possibilities for intelligent life in the universe? This question is known in science as the ‘Fermi Paradox’. Of course, there are many UFO stories. They are all the product of human imagination, based on pseudo-scientific fallacies or esoteric business models. Most of them are science fiction for entertainment purposes. Carl Sagan once wrote that extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence. Even the simplest evidence is missing here. Not a single artefact from another planet or from an extraterrestrial spaceship has ever appeared on Earth. And to clarify: anyone who claims something must be able to prove it. Opinions, stories and anecdotes are not proof. It is not the unbeliever who has the burden of proof, but the prophet.
The 'Great Filter'
A strong explanation of the ‘Fermi paradox’ is provided by the theory of the 'Great Filter'. The filter can also be described as a barrier or hurdle. The assumption arises from the many possible catastrophes that can put an abrupt end to the further development of a species during its long evolutionary history. Just think of the dinosaurs here on earth. According to a controversial theory, the eruption of a supervolcano on the island of Sumatra 75,000 years ago reduced humanity to a few thousand people. In this way, the development of intelligent life on other planets in the universe can also be impeded and the progress of civilisations made impossible. We know from human history just how much natural disasters can influence the world. If the Tunguska event in 1908 had not taken place over Siberia, but over the Ruhr area in Germany, the First World War would almost certainly not have happened. The world would probably look a little different today.
A key aspect of the ‘Great Filter’ theory is the possibility of self-extinction. It assumes that, from a certain technical level, civilisations are capable of ending their own existence - intentionally or unintentionally. This is clearly the case on Earth today. At the beginning of this century, people were still confident, but much has changed with the Russian Federation's invasion of its neighbouring country. This war of aggression is not only being waged against Ukraine and western civilisation, but is directed against the whole of mankind, as well as against the population of Russia itself. The suffering of the people affected is immeasurable. The extent of the global damage cannot be foreseen. The majority of the Russian people find themselves in a situation similar to that of the Germans during the national socialist dictatorship. History teaches us what this leads to. Dear Russians, why are you going along with this? Why are you allowing yourselves to be misled by a gang of rabble-rousers, thieves and murderers? Do you really want to wait so long for Putin to shoot himself in his bunker?
More and more wars and unrest are currently breaking out. Even if the current wars do not immediately escalate into a third world war and no matter how they end, they will inevitably lead to a new Cold War. Important resources that are urgently needed for the survival of mankind are being channelled into national armaments projects. The number of weapons of mass destruction will increase. Global disarmament and the abolition of nuclear weapons will remain a pipe dream. I have explained this sufficiently in my article ‘World without nuclear weapons’. Mutual mistrust between peoples will poison any reasonable co-operation. Distrust of Islam will increase, even if the vast majority of Muslims reject terror and war. Religious fundamentalists will cause more unrest. Fanatical sects will turn their followers into mindless slaves. Evangelical Christians, who are virtually anticipating the apocalypse, are causing concern. All of this is happening in a world stressed by climate change, with increasing natural disasters, famines, pandemics, distribution struggles and refugee movements. The world threatens to sink into chaos. All the ingredients for a world war and the self-destruction of humanity will then be in place.
The biggest hurdle
Even if humanity could end all wars and realise world peace, the biggest hurdle for the survival of our species would still have to be overcome. It is climate change caused by global warming. This threatening situation is a result of our civilisation and began at a time when people were not yet aware of it. In principle, it started when our ancestors made fires in their caves to keep warm. The climate crisis is expected to worsen significantly in the coming years. The current storms, floods, droughts and wildfires are just a foretaste of what is to come. Author David Wallace-Wells described this as follows in his bestseller ‘The Uninhabitable Earth’:
‘There will be chaos and wars, there will be millions of deaths and uprisings and flight and displacement of unimagined proportions and a looking away and cruelty and a decay of what we call civilisation. There will be diseases that are millions of years old, locked in the ice, brought to life and to death by the melting ice. There will be the sixth extinction, and it is not clear whether man will not be among those for whom the earth is no longer a place on which they can live.’
Because Wallace-Wells also saw possible ways out, his book was criticised by climate researchers as being too optimistic. You really have to reckon with everything. What we should not count on, however, is a credible climate policy on the part of governments. We should not be fooled by declarations of intent. The nation states are still prisoners of their systems. They only agree to joint action when it suits them. The UN Climate Change Conference COP 29 currently taking place at great expense in Baku, Azerbaijan, is a farce. It can already be predicted that the results of this political theatre will not produce much more than the greenwashing of a Caucasian dictatorship and dubious deals on the international energy market. Nobody seems to care if humanity not only gets stuck in the ‘Great Filter’ in the foreseeable future, but also hits the wall.
The principle of hope
How can we still have hope at a time like this? The majority of the world's population is barely informed and not in a position to do anything about the impending doom. For the most part, they also lack the necessary awareness of mankind. And the re-election of Donald Trump as President of the United States is a punch in the gut. I therefore asked myself the question in an article: ‘Is mankind worth it?' My clear answer is: Yes. Because a lot is already happening to save humanity in a bearable future, away from the usual centres of power. However, this is no longer about preventing future disasters. That train has long since left the station. Rather, it is about how these now unavoidable disasters can be managed and their effects mitigated. In its current state, the United Nations is clearly too weak for this. There is no improvement in sight.
If the United Nations system collapses in the course of increasing catastrophes, authoritarian powers will attempt to take over the world order. The Chinese Communist Party and Putin's Russia are already fantasising about it. India, Brazil and South Africa are not averse (look BRICS - Beware for false friends!). There are many smaller dictatorships that will be happy to join in. ‘America first’ will then become the arse of the world. It's hard to imagine the chaos that will ensue. Only the iron fist of a ‘dictatorship of reason’ will be able to control it. However, this will not be able to solve the world's problems either, but will lead to even more death and destruction. I have already addressed this scenario in my article ‘Global empire or federal world union?' A tolerable passage through the ‘Great Filter’ is only conceivable for humanity in the form of a democratic world federation. Whether it will succeed depends on us humans.
The world federation is of course still a utopia. But utopias are not automatically wrong. Much of what is normal today was once utopia. What is technically commonplace today would have been seen as magic 200 years ago. A world federation could not be founded so easily and quickly. It is conceivable that the United Nations could develop into a federal world union on its own, but it is unlikely as things stand today. Something more is needed. It needs people as active world citizens. A new world organisation, the United Mankind Organisation (UMO), must be founded for this purpose. This would require experienced civil society NGOs to take the initiative. It would also be a great advantage if a United Religions Organisation (URO) were also created. UMO and URO could help the UN achieve its urgently needed reform. The world federation could then be founded on the three pillars of United Nations, United Mankind and United Religions. With a bit of good will and the increasing pressure brought about by future events, the world federation could be realised by the end of this century. Humans would then have the chance to overcome the ‘Great Filter’ and could begin to rehabilitate the Earth, secure its existence and spread throughout our solar system. That would be the work of the next 1000 years.